Wednesday, April 29, 2009

I will Resume Posting this Weekend

I am in AC for the week on business and I will continue to post this weekend.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Wieters is Human

Matt Wieters has returned to action and he is showing his inexperience at AAA. This season he is hitting .720 with 1 HR and a 8:13 BB:K ratio. Wieters is know for his exceptional plate discipline and this ratio is telling. Wieters is a switch hitter but he is struggling against LHP as he is batting .143 against them.

If Matt Gamel didn't have 2 concrete blocks for hands this kid would be playing 3B for the Brewers instead of Bill Hall. So far this season he is hitting .403 (.400 vs LHP; .404 vs RHP) with 6 HR and 24 RBI. Gamel has amassed a 1.287 OPS so far and will be in the majors before long.

Davis Price isn't lighting the world on fire for AAA Durham. Price is 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA in 17 IP. He has fanned 20 and walked 8 so far. Interesting stat with Price is that his ERA when he is behind in the count is 13.50 and 0.00 when he is ahead in the count. My advice for Price: THROW STRIKE 1! This performance worries me none and I would be actively trading for him after you tell his owner how bad of start he is having.

Strasburg is at it again against #16 TCU. Friday night Strasburg pitched 7 innings giving up 3 runs while striking out 14 and only walking 1. So far this season he is 9-0 1.54 ERA with 135 K's and 13 BBs in 70.3 innings. This guy is straight nasty and if your league allows minor leaguers go and get him ASAP before the draft hype puts him on everyone's radar screen.

The Indians’ Matt LaPorta (1B, CLE) continues to rake for AAA Columbus. On the year he is hitting .400 with 7 BBs and only 5 Ks. He has displayed great plate discipline along with amazing power as he has 5 HR YTD. The Indians are going to have to get this guy in the line-up in the OF, DH, or at 1B when Victor is behind the plate. I am not high on Garko and I think he is the odd man out in this situation.

I can across this bit of information on baseballHQ forum about the movement of Porcello's FB:

"Brandon Webb, is possibly the greatest sinkerball starter of alltime. (His fastball moves 9.3 inches on average. The average pitcher's fastball moves 6 inches. Porcello so far: 9.6 inches! Porcello's fastball is also a few MPH faster than Webb's at 92.4 (compared to Webb's career average of 88.5)."

Other News:
Jokim Soria is experiencing shoulder sorness and is expecting to miss a few games. This news scares me and Soria owner's need to pick up Cruz and stay away from Farnsworth. Remember Webb's injury started as just sorness and now he is out until June.

AROD could return May 9th

Derek Holland's Pitch F/X data from debut

Rickey Romero on DL with strained right oblique muscle

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Whos is Rickey Romero?

Many owners are rushing to bid for the 24 year old Rickey Romero in fantasy free agent pools. Ricardo "Rickey" Romero is a 6'1 200 lb lefty from the Toronto organization. Romero has spent 4 season in the minors from 2005-2008 and most of his time was spent in AA.

Career Minor League Stats:
W: 16
L: 22
ERA: 4.33
IP: 415.2
K: 324
WHIP: 1.465
K/9: 7.0
BB/9: 3.8

2009 YTD Stats
W: 2
L: 0
ERA: 1.71
IP: 21
K: 13
WHIP: 1.10
K/9: 5.6
BB/9:
1.7

Romero is having more control in the majors then he did in the minors and once that corrects itself his numbers will come back to earth. The scary part is he is only striking out 5.6 per 9 so he is giving up K's for more control. Usually pitchers don't magically change from the minors to the majors so once hitters see him a couple of times I think he is going to get pounded pitching in the AL EAST. He is only 24 so and maybe he improved his mechanics but only time will tell. So I wouldn't be using a lot of FAAB $ on him and if he has a few more quality starts, I would sell high Martha Stewart style of this guy. Here is the complete Pitch F/X data for his MLB debut.

Quote from link above about Romero's movement on his fastball:

"His fastball lacks serious sink IMO and, at least of this day, appeared to be fairly flat. It did have some late in the zone downward movement but nothing indicating too much sink."

Other News:
Cubs recall Samardzija to help Pen

Kelvim Escobar out until June?

Derek Holland solid in debut

Hamilton sits with sore ribs

Nady avoids TJ surgery and expected back in 4-6 weeks

Doumit has pins put in wrist, out 8-10 weeks

Thames out at least a month with strained ribcage


Hamilton has Awful 2nd Week

If you are in a weekly league and own Josh Hamilton, you know where I am going with this post! In week 1 he was fine but he has decided to suck real bad real quick once that 2nd Monday came around. From the reports on him that I read, he is swinging at the first pitch too much and breaking balls are making him consider calling his dealer. I think he is going to be fine but if you can find an owner in a league starting to panic, I would buy low on him before he turns it around.

First week: 21 ABs, .286/.385/.524; 1 homer, 1 triple; 3 walks/2 ks.
Second week: 27 ABs, .185/.185/.222; 0 homers, 1 double; 0 walks/10 ks.

EPSN reported that Wang would have to pitch 47.67 scoreless innings to get his ERA back to his career average of 3.93. Speaking of Wang, pundits all over the country are calling the new Yankee Stadium the Coors of the Northeast, I think the pitching has been terrible and we need a larger sample size to make any conclusions. I think the Yankkes are going to come up with some lame injury for Wang because he is out of options and would be claimed even with his historic start. To get ahead of the curve, I would pick-up Phil Hughes because his chance will come real soon.

I watched Jordan's Zimmerman's debut and he was really impressive getting ahead in the count and keeping the Braves off balance. 71% of his pitches were for strikes and 16% were swinging.
Here is a complete breakdown of his start with Pitch F/X

Other News:
Hamels Explains Bad Start

Matt Wieters has been out since the 19th with a Hamstring injury

O's recall Montanez as Freel goes on the DL

Mauer to return May 1

High School Pitcher Throws 4 straight No-Hitters

Minor League Draft Rd. 8

This round really turned out to be a pretty good late round. I love Kyle Gibson from Missouri at pick #104. I was targeting power hitting catcher J.P. Arencibia, who ended up going #100, but I went with Poreda, who is a tall lefty for the White Sox, and to be honest I am not really crazy about this pick but he had the highest ceiling for pitchers on my board at the time. Hind sight I would have loved to get RHP Aumont, I didn't have the luxury to see him pitch in the WBC. The reason why I think Brignac fell this far is the arrival of Tim Beckham who was the 1st pick in the 2008 draft. Once Beckham is ready, I assume Brignac will be dealt.


Round 8
99. Scott Elbert, Los Angeles Dodgers
100. J.P. Arencibia, Toronto Blue Jays
101. Adys Portillo, San Diego Padres
102. Reid Brignac, Tampa Bay Rays
103. Fautino De Los Santos, Oakland Athletics
104. Kyle Gibson, Missouri
105. Kentrail Davis, University of Tennessee
106. Kyle Skipworth, Florida Marlins
107. Adrian Cardenas, Oakland Athletics
108. Chris Coughlan, Florida Marlins
109. Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay Rays
110. Aaron Poreda, Chicago White Sox
111. Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds
112. Phillippe Aumont, Seattle Mariners

Sunday, April 19, 2009

I Hate Chien-Ming Wang

First, I must start by stating that I am a Wang owner and that S.O.B. is on a mission to personally ruin my team's ERA and WHIP. I can't put it in words the pure hate I have for this guy and it is obvious what his problem is as 42.6% of his pitches are considered up or high in the zone compared with 31.1% from 2008. His average velocity is also trending downwards for the past 3 season so when you combine lower velocity with less sink and balls up in the zone you get the shit sandwich called Chien-Ming Wang. You see view a complete breakdown of his pitches for the past 2 seasons here. I thought it was an accomplishment to shoot a round a golf below your age, I will be happy when Wang's ERA gets below his age (29 years old vs. 35.50 ERA).

Your time to "sell high" on Emilio Bonifacio or Jordan Shafer is officially over. These two young lads came out firing on all cylinders this season but they have been brought down to reality in hurry. Over the past 4 games, Bonificio is 1-16 with 9 K's and only 1 BB while Shafer is went 1-21 with 13 Ks and 1 BB for a season average of .225. I never bought into Bonificio but I was drinking the Shafer Kool-Aid early. This could be a buy low opportunity on Shafer.

Pitching Prospects in the Minors (Data from http://www.minorleaguenotebook.com/):

Tommy Hanson fanned 17 batters and walked just 4 in 10 innings while allowing just 1 run.
David Price has 10 strikeouts and 3 walks in 8.2 innings over 2 starts with a 2.08 ERA.
Madison Bumgarner has 9 strikeouts and 2 walks with a 0.00 ERA over his two starts.
Derek Holland has 5 strikeouts and 3 walks in 4 innings in his only start of the season.
Neftali Feliz has 9 strikeouts and 8 walks in 9 innings with a 2.00 ERA.
Jarrod Parker has 11 strikeouts and 1 walk over 9 innings with a 0.00 ERA in two starts.
Brian Matusz has 10 strikeouts and 5 walks over 9.2 innings with a 4.66 ERA.
Jhoulys Chacin has 8 strikeouts and 2 walks over 10.2 innings with a 2.53 ERA.
Chris Tillman has 5 strikeouts and 3 walks in 4 no hit innings.
Tim Alderson has 8 strikeouts and 1 walk in 8.1 innings with a 4.32 ERA.
Brett Cecil has 1 strikeout and 2 walks in 4 innings with a 4.50 ERA.
Jordan Zimmermann has 4 strikeouts and 1 walk in 5.1 innings and a 5.06 ERA.

Stephen Strasburg continues to make a mockery of NCAA baseball. He is 8-0 with 121 Ks in 63.1 IP with only 12 BB. His ERA is 1.28 and he is on pace to demolish the NCAA record for K/9 of 16.8 as he currently is at 17.19 Ks per 9.

Prospects in MLB through 4/18:

Colby Rasmus- Rasmus is off to a rough start hitting .235 with only 1 XBH for a SLG% of .265
Cameron Maybin- He is porting a 14:1 K:BB ratio and hitting .206 with only 1 SB
Dexter Fowler- He is hitting .308 with 2 HR and 2 SB. He also has an impressive OPS of .934
Kendry Morales- He is batting .244 with 0 HR and only 3 RBI. He has K'd is every game but 1
Pablo Sandoval- He is below the Mendoza line at .195 with 0 HR and 1 RBI.
Travis Snider- He is hitting .321 with 3 HR and 9 RBI. His OPS is 1.173 and has 6K and 3BB.
Trevor Cahill- he is 0-1 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 17.3 IP but he has 13 BB and 5 K
Rick Porcello- He is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP after 1 start.

Other News:
Rangers call up Pitching Prospect Derek Holland

Vlad out for a month with torn muscle in chest

Alex Gordon out until June with torn labral cartilage in his right hip

Monday, April 13, 2009

BA Midseason All-American Team

Hitters
C- Tony Sanchez, BC AVG:.381 HR: 12
1B- Dustin Ackley, NC AVG: .411 HR:10
2B- Phil Gosselin, Vir. AVG: .375 SB: 12
3B- Tom Mendonca, FS. AVG: .327 HR:12
SS- Bryant Hernandez, OK AVG: .433 HR:6
OF- Jason Kipins, AS AVG: .429 HR:9
OF- Kent Mattes, Ala AVG: .394 HR:17
OF- Brett Nommensen, EI AVG: .516 HR:11
DH- Rich Poythress, GEO AVG: .443 HR:13
UT- Brooks Raley, A&M AVG: .358 SB: 17

Pitchers
SP- Stephen Strasburg, SDS 6-0 ERA: 1.40 K:BB Ratio: 94:10
SP- Mike Leake, ASU 7-1 ERA: 1.29 K:BB Ratio: 62:13
SP- AJ Morris, KSU 8-0 ERA: 0.83 K:BB Ratio: 55:18
SP- Josh Spence, ASU 6-0 ERA: 1.17 K:BB Ratio: 72:16
RP- Kyle Bellamy, MIA 3-0 ERA: 1.52 K:BB Ratio: 41:13 Saves: 9
UT- Brooks Raley, A&M 5-1 ERA: 2.51 K:BB Ratio: 50:12

The 2 players that you need to pay attention to is Stephen Strasburg (obviously) and Dustin Ackley from NC. Ackley is hitting .411 slugging .734 with an OBP of .520. Ackely has also stole 7 bases and has walked more then he has K'ed this season. Both Ackley and Strasburg should be top 5 picks in this year's draft.

Other News:
Marlins Prospect Fractures Thumb

Tom Glavine Experiences Setback

Balt Sun Article about Markakis

Escobar has a "Bump in the Road"

OC Register Article about Angels Promoting from Within

Interview with Ranger Prospect Justin Smoak

I would be willing to bet a whole lot of money that Smoak's career HR total will be greater then his SAT score.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Minor League Draft Rd. 7

This picked look real good until about 4 days ago when Motte got his first chance to close for STL and then he got rocked Barry Zito style. I now have Motte along with Perez, who is starting the season in AAA, and Tony is running a bunch a veteran clowns out to save games. I think one of the two will be the closer by the end of the season but this is frustrating as I need a save source ASAP. To be perfectly honest this was a pretty boring round. The pick that I like the most is Ryan Perry who was closer stuff and is pitching for Detroit's bullpen right now. Max Ramirez is an interesting player if he doesn't eat himself into a 1B because his value is much greater a catcher. Pick #95, Kyle Blanks from San Diego, has huge power potential but is blocked by Adrian Gonzalez until 2010 and it will be interesting to see what the Padres do with Adrian's 2011 club option $5.5 million. Brett Lawrie has recently changed his position from catcher to 2B so I am not really sure that it alters his value much at all.


Round 7
85. Greg Halman, Seattle Mariners
86. Tyler Matzek, Capistrano Valley HS
87. Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
88. Christian Walker, Kennedy-Kenrick Catholic HS
89. Michael Bowden, Boston Red Sox
90. Max Ramirez, Texas Rangers
91. Brett Lawrie, Milwaukee Brewers
92. Ryan Perry, Detroit Tigers
93. Ben Revere, Minnesota Twins
94. Nick Adenhart, Los Angeles Angels
95. Kyle Blanks, San Diego Padres
96. Michael Saunders, Seattle Mariners
97. Jake Arrieta, Baltimore Orioles
98. Daniel Bard, Boston Red Sox

Minor League Draft Rd. 6

As I stated before I got a little CF crazy and I did it again with Austin Jackson from the Yankees. I like him but with my depth in CF I am going to look to trade him. One thing you have to watch out for is the "NY Hype" (i.e. Fernado Martinez) and I think Jackson gets a boost due to playing for NY. The exact opposite is Jordan Zimmerman from the Nationals who would be more known except he plays for a team that has roughly 37 fans. Zimmerman is my favorite pick of this round and he has made the roation as the 5th starter for the Nationals. Zimmerman had a amazing Spring and has the luxury of playing in a pitchers park in Washington. Going into this round I wanted to get Darvish knowing that he is going to come over sooner or later. I think this kid is going to be lights out for the Yanks or Red Sox when he comes over (they are the only teams that will be able to afford the posting fee). Darvish has stated that he wanted to become the greatest pitcher in Japan's history before coming to the Majors but with the recession, I could see his team selling his ass to the highest bidder real soon.

Round 6
71. Yu Darvish, Japan
72. Alex White, UNC
73. Jeremy Jeffress, Milwaukee Brewers
74. Jose Ceda, Florida Marlins
75. Tyler Flowers, Chicago White Sox
76. Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays
77. Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
78. Jeff Samardzija, Chicago Cubs
79. Aaron Crow, Fort Worth Cats
80. Jordan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
81. Gio Gonzalez, Oakland Athletics
82. Austin Jackson, NY Yankees
83. Chris Carter, Oakland Athletics
84. Martin Perez, Texas Rangers

ESPN Poll Day After Adenhart's Death

You would think someone in Bristol would get a clue and not reference the injuries of the Angels pitching staff related to winning a pennant when a member of thier team was killed the night before.

What the Hell is Going on with Webb

I know that Webb isn't a prospect, but I own him in a league and I would have loved to know that he visited Dr. Doom back in December! It looks like Webb is going to start on Friday but Webb's health shut down contract extension talks and this quote below explains why:

According to Rosenthal's sources, "Webb couldn't reach the standard of health required for an insurance company to provide several million dollars worth of coverage. After Webb failed several physicals, apparently in June, the team apparently broke off contract negotiations and yanked their three-year, $54 million offer off the table".

I have read articles blaming his velocity on his struggles but looking at historical Pitch F/X data, that isn't the case. I have pulled data from his start this season, his first start in 2008, and a start late in the 2008 season:


4/6/2009- Avg Fastball Speed:87.56 MPH with a Max Speed of 88.6 MPH
4/5/2008- Avg Fastball Speed:88.15 MPH with a Max Speed of 89.8 MPH
8/5/2008- Avg Fastball Speed:87.54 MPH with a Max Speed of 89.4 MPH

As you can see his velocity is very consistent from last season. In April of last season he pitched 35 innings going 5-0 with an ERA of 1.80, so he isn't known as a slow starter and his MPH is there so I guess it has to be the movement of his sinker that is the problem. One thing to watch is his K rate as the season progresses as the final 3 months of 2008 his K/9 declined:

July: 7.7 K/9
Aug: 7.1 K/9
Sept: 6.0 K/9

Other News:
The #1 prospect for the Seattle Mariners, SS Carlos Triunfel, broke his Tibia and could miss the rest of the season.

Pitch F/X data for Brett Anderson's Debut

Madison Bumgarner was impressive in 1st start of the season going 6 innings giving up 2 hits and fanning 5 for the San Jose Giants.

Wieters faced David Price in Durham today and he struck out and walked vs. Price and went 0-4 in the game with 2 K's. Price went 3 2/3, 4 H, 2BB, 2 ER, 4 K, 1 HR, 74 pitches. This may knock these two superstars back to reality for a brief moment.

Really funny Matt Wieters Facts Blog

Friday, April 10, 2009

Time to Roster Dotel?

Bobby Jenks is that guy who always ends up on one of my fantasy team every year. Going into this year I really didn't want to own him , but I had him in a keeper league so I am stuck with him for now. After looking at his number overt the past 3 years it seems like Jenks is due to explode very soon. Let look at his figures for the past 3 seasons:

Note: XERA is a Baseball HQ figure that displays what an ERA should be with a pitcher's given ratios.

2006: IP: 69.7 SV: 41 ERA: 4.00 K/9: 10.3 XERA: 2.79
2007: IP: 65.0 SV: 40 ERA: 2.77 K/9: 7.8 XERA: 3.24
2008: IP: 61.7 SV:30 ERA: 2.63 K/9: 5.5 XERA: 4.01

On the surface his ERA has declined 3 years in a row but it is really tough for a closer to suceed in an extrexe HR park with a K/9 rate of 5.5. His K rate has almost cut in half since 2006 and his XERA has gone from 2.79 to 4.01. I believe it is time to sell on Jenks and if you own him it would be wise to grab Dotel as Plan B. Last season Dotel fanned 74 in 56 innings of work posting an ERa of 3.86.

The Norfolk vs Durham game was postponed due to rain and that game was going to feature David Price vs Wieters for the first time since college.

Tim Beckham goes yard in opener for the Bowling Green Hot Rods.

Brett Wallace sending message to Tony going deep twice and driving in 6 runs while going 4-5. This may be guy to pick up now as the 3B position seems to be in serious limbo in STL.

Pedro Alvarez impresses in debut going 3-4 with 4 RBIs and falling a triple short of the cycle

Tommy Hanson fans 10 in 4.1 innings for AAA Gwinnett

Texas Top Pitching prospect, Neftali Feliz, issued 6 walks in AAA debut. With Kris Benson in the Texas rotation, this kid may not have much time to learn in AAA.

Jason Motte's time as closer may be running out fast as he was pulled from tonight's game in the 9th inning after he surrendered 2 hits to Pudge and Keppinger. He did get Bourn to fly out to center but K. Mclellan relieved Motte and recorded the Save by striking out Matsui and getting Pence to ground out. This is not good news for Motte owners and I have no idea what Tony is going to do but after reading this article, it seems like Perez is going to get another shot at closing games for the Cards sometime this season.

Other News:
Tribute to Nick Adenhart

Trevor Cahill's Pitch F/X data for MLB debut

Rick Porcello's Pitch F/X data for MLB debut

AROD to resume Baseball activities on Monday

Monday, April 6, 2009

Finally the Games Count!

Well, Derek Lowe looked like Sandy Kofaux last night against the Phils but I want to touch on the fact that Jordan Shafer was Intentially walked in the 3rd AB ever! I know the pitcher was up next but I bet this may be a record for earliest IBB in MLB history. Shafer also became the 99th player to hit a HR in his first AB as he finsihed 2-3. Brett Myers was throwing watermelons up to the Braves but he hit that ball a long way. I think Shafer had his welcome to the Bigs moment when he faced Brad Lidge in the 9th as Shafer look extremley over matched against his slider but so does the rest of MLB. His K rate is one thing to watch but this kid is going to have a great season. Click here to see his PitchFX data from last night's game. You can really see the pitch from Myers that he hit out has right down the pike

Prospect Watch:

Keep your eyes on Ryan Perry from DET who has made the Opening Day Roster and has closer stuff. He will be valuable in leagues where Holds are counted and he is an outside saves source.

Tuesday: Trevor Cahill goes Tuesday against the Angels
Thursday: Rick Porcello goes against Thursday against TOR

Other News:
Article about Strasburg's recent outing

Samardzija sent to AAA Iowa

Later this week I will post about the 1st week of FAAB for NFBC leagues

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Minor League Draft Rd. 5

Round 5

I went into this draft wanting to upgrade CF and as you will see later I went overboard on them. I was very excited to land Schafer especially now that is is the starting CF for the Braves. I think he has a great mix of power and speed and his defense will keep him in the MLB if his bat slips. I think Schafer is going to be the best player within this group for a least the next 3-4 years. The Inoa (I think he changed the spelling to Yona) pick is major/risk reward as he only just turned seventeen. The most interesting pick of the round was Bryce Harper who is only a sophomore in HIGH SCHOOL right now but this kid can straight up rake the baseball. Click here to watch video of Harper. Ike Davis 1B from the Mets was really a stretch in the 5th round but what the hell do I know as a drafted Perez in the 3rd!

57. Michael Inoa, Oakland Athletics
58. Dominic Brown, Philadelphia Phillies
59. Jordan Schafer, Atlanta Braves
60. Hank Conger, Los Angeles Angels
61. Wilmer Flores, New York Mets
62. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
63. Jose Tabata, Pittsburgh Pirates
64. Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado Rockies
65. Bryce Harper, Las Vegas High School
66. Kila Ka'aihue, Kansas City Royals
67. Angel Salome, Milwaukee Brewers
68. Michael Taylor, Philadelphia Phillies
69. Ike Davis, New York Mets
70. Daryl Jones, St. Louis Cardinals

Other News:
Madison Bumgarner K's Manny in Spring game

Leyland names Rodney closer to start the year

Joba bounces back just hours after I post about being worried!

Projected Standings for Tout Wars